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Ag Market Commentary
Alan Brugler - BRUG - Fri Oct 23, 4:35PM UTC

After a week of green candles, corn futures are fractionally mixed at midday on Friday. USDA announced a private export sale of 100k MT of corn to unknown under the daily reporting system. NOAA’s 5-day QPF shows 1 to 2 inches of rainfall along the border of MO and AR. The southern borders of IL and IN are also projected to receive up to 1.5” of accumulated rainfall. The NWS 8-14 day forecast shows drier conditions for Midwest fieldwork during election week.

Dec 20 Corn is at $4.16 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

Mar 21 Corn is at $4.18 1/2, up 1/4 cent,

May 21 Corn is at $4.19 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Jul 21 Corn is at $4.19, down 1/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management




Ahead of the weekend soybean futures are trading mostly lower, with losses limited to 2 3/4 cents. November’s inverse is weakening, now near plus 1/2 cent to Jan. Carry in Chinese beans is 17 yuan/MT (~7 cents/bu) from November to January. Carry for Dalian No 2 soybeans is 92 yuan/MT (~37 cents) form Nov to Jan. CBT meal futures are giving back $1.20 to $1.60/ton at midday. Midday BO futures are trading 14 to 15 points higher so far. Malaysian palm oil November contracts recovered 168 ringgits over the last three sessions, closing at 3,060 on 10/22. The Malaysian palm oil futures market is still inverted, with Nov a 1.5% premium to Dec and a 4% premium to Jan.

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $10.71, down 2 3/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $10.70 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans are at $10.58 3/4, unch,

May 21 Soybeans are at $10.54 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

Dec 20 Soybean Meal is at $380.80, down $1.60

Dec 20 Soybean Oil is at $33.83, up $0.14

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are showing midday gains. CBT wheat is 4 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents stronger so far. KC wheat futures are gaining 7 1/4 to 9 1/4 cents. MGE HRS futures are up 1 1/4 to 3 cents. US exports for the marketing year beginning June 1 now total 10.19 MMT (374.4 mbu. South Korea purchased 65,000 MT of U.S. feed wheat. Taiwan purchased 88,635 MT of U.S. wheat in an international tender. Egypt is tendering for wheat, with results expected later today. Russia has the lowest bid so far, but no purchases announcement has been made through midday. The Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its estimate of the Argentine wheat crop to 16.8 MMT vs. USDA at 19 MMT.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat is at $6.29, up 6 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat is at $5.67 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.75 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



After dropping triple digits yesterday, live cattle futures are plus a nickel to 77 cents at midday. Shorts are taking some money off the table ahead of this afternoon’s USDA report. Feeder cattle prices are mixed with losses limited to 35 cents and midday gains capped at 27 cents. The 10/21 Feeder Cattle Index dropped another $2.83 to $135.53. Thursday cash business was light; USDA reported a few sales from $103 to $105. The average of pre report estimates expects USDA to show 11.65m (+3.2%) head on feed on Oct 1. September placements in the COF report are estimated at 2.154m head (+2.4%). And the average estimate for Sept marketings is 1.839m head (+5.8%). Wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger in the AM quote. Choice boxes were up $0.11 and Select was $1.02 higher. USDA estimates FI cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday at 480,000 head. That is 4k above last week’s pace, and up 8k head from the same week last year.

Oct 20 Cattle are at $103.725, up $0.400,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $104.250, up $0.775,

Feb 21 Cattle are at $107.275, up $0.500,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $133.800, down $0.025

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle are at $130.075, down $0.350

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle are at $126.375, up $0.175

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month lean hog futures are mostly lower for Friday’s midday. Dec hogs are 57 cents in the black after Thursday’s limit loss. The other front months are down 17 to 47 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/21 was $78.60, 9 cents weaker. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was delayed this morning from packer submission errors. Yesterday’s PM quote was $60.57. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was 11 cents weaker in the AM update to $98.73 cwt. The primals were mixed but mostly higher, but offset by a $10.98 cwt. drop in bellies. Pork stocks in September were 466.474 million lbs per the Cold Storage report. That was just 0.22% above August and the lowest end of September inventory since 2010. This week’s hog slaughter through Thursday was estimated at 1.949m head. That is down from 1.958 LY.

Dec 20 Hogs are at $66.775, up $0.575,

Feb 21 Hogs are at $66.675, down $0.175

Apr 21 Hogs are at $69.400, down $0.300

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month cotton futures are trading 61 to 68 points lower on Friday profit taking. There is only a 0.8% carry to March. Chinese cotton futures have closed red for three consecutive days on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. Nov futures were down 6.5% from the 17 month high set three days earlier. Carry to Jan and March was 1.7% and 2.5% from Nov respectively. USDA’s cotton ginnings report showed 1.658m RBs were ginned for the YTD. USDA’s Daily Spot Quotations report said 7,139 bales were sold at spot on Thursday at 66.76 cents per pound. The Cotlook A index was firm at 76.85 cents/lb on 10/22. The AWP for the week is 55.71 cents/lb.

Dec 20 Cotton is at 71.26, down 68 points,

Mar 21 Cotton is at 71.85, down 66 points

May 21 Cotton is at 72.44, down 65 points

Jul 21 Cotton is at 72.88, down 66 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



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